Quantitative Finance · Sat, Oct 31, 2026

arXiv Quantitative Finance (q-fin).

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arXiv q-fin.TR · econ.EM

Reading the Count: Prediction Markets and Brazil's 2026 Presidential Election

In briefReading the Count: Prediction Markets and Brazil's 2026 Presidential Election

SummaryThe authors rebuild the public count of Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff minute by minute from electoral court section-level records and compare it with every trade on Kalshi and Polymarket. They find that the markets imply a final-margin standard deviation about four times that of a live projection, and that during a two-hour count suspension the markets gave Lula lower probabilities than any later reading from the sections then public.

Raphael Coelho

arXiv math.PR · q-fin.RM

When is the deepest drawdown also the longest?

In briefDoes the deepest drawdown also last the longest?

SummaryThe paper studies whether the deepest drawdown in a random walk is also the longest one. For random walks with i.i.d. increments of positive finite mean, the two are almost surely distinct under light-tailed losses but coincide with probability tending to one under heavy-tailed losses. The paper gives explicit limit laws and rank results for both cases.

Yinhao Wu