Scenario Matching for Credit Dependence Stress Tests: Temporal correlation constraints and empirical risk bounds
In briefScenario matching for credit dependence stress tests with correlation constraints and empirical risk bounds
SummaryThe paper pairs two sets of simulated market and credit paths by minimizing the absolute error in temporal correlation relative to a target, with each market path matched to exactly one credit path so both full-scenario distributions are preserved. A perfect-matching test checks whether a uniform correlation-error tolerance is feasible and finds its smallest value, and further assignments yield exact empirical bounds on mean loss and exceedance probability. A synthetic bond-forward credit stress test illustrates matching precision and tail results. The method does not depend on the scenario generator and can be used to examine dependence assumptions in existing risk engines.