Market Regime-Based Multi-Asset Portfolio Optimization Using Nested Clustered Optimization for Tactical Asset Allocation
In briefRegime-aware multi-asset portfolio allocation using hidden Markov models and nested clustered optimization, tested on Indonesian assets.
SummaryThe paper proposes a tactical asset allocation framework that combines Gaussian Hidden Markov Model regime detection with Nested Clustered Optimization, with regimes identified out of sample. It is tested on an Indonesian multi-asset universe including government bonds, LQ45 equities, gold, CNY/IDR exchange rates, and Bitcoin over 56 out-of-sample months from 2021 to 2025. The regime-aware version limits maximum drawdown to 4.44%, but the regime-agnostic NCO shows a lower drawdown of 2.19% and higher cumulative return. The authors find that a rolling 24-month HMM switches regimes in 55 of 56 months, causing regime drift that erodes the expected gains.